Bird-Doggin' the Internet ^™

FACING 1999

By Dr. Steve O'Neil, Micro Mo Electronics, Inc.

When Bird-Doggin' premiered back in 1995, the Internet was largely a curiosity to the world at large. Invented and maintained by scientific and government entities, its purpose was to provide a reliable communications backbone and allow the rapid transfer of large files. Our emphasis in the "early days" was on computer and software configuration, browser selection, searching techniques, and where to find best of breed educational and commercial sites for specific engineering disciplines. Year 1999, however, promises to put a different, and very commercial, slant on the direction of Internet growth and the allocation of resources for Internet development. The battle now begins to turn the Web into a money machine. The method: Bring as many "eyeballs" as possible to commercial sites and storefronts in order to generate as much in sales and advertising revenues as possible. After all, with Internet sales revenues estimated to reach $13 billion in 1998 [Boston Consulting Group] and $200 billion in the early years of the next century [CNNfn], who can resist? Evidence of this trend can be seen in the move of the major search engines to turn their sites into "destination portals" from which to sell CDs, travel packages, and even automobiles. The emergence of "shopping 'bots" carries the concept one step further by allowing Netizens to search the Web for the best deal on anything from aardvarks to Viagra. The sale of Netscape to AOL, already contested by Ralph Nader's Consumer Project on Technology, pits AOL's 14 million member base with Netscape's 20 million visitors per month against Microsoft's MSN with 2 million members.

While at first look this may bode ill for those interested in free and low cost engineering resources, it should have the benefit of finally bringing a semblance of adequate bandwidth to the Web. Already one local phone provider is providing Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line (ADSL) service for $29.95/month and up. This gives you twice the bandwidth of ISDN--yesterday's compromise between cost and speed. Compaq and Dell are now planning to include DSL (Digital Subscriber Line) modems in consumer desktops, while telcos such as MCI WorldCom are expected to support these protocols early in the year. November's Comdex was awash in news of alliances for higher bandwidth from the likes of Road Runner, @ Home Network, Ameritech, Hughes, DirecPC, and others. As these offerings mature, we will hopefully be able to spend time covering such promising technologies as conferencing software, whiteboarding, audio (including Internet telephony), and video over the Web.

Other major trends for 1999 will probably include increased regulation, the emergence of meaningful hardware and software standards, and lower cost everyday tools such as Internet faxing, distance learning and wireless communication. However, a November 1998 survey done by R&D Magazine shows how technology firms are at odds with commercial interests. In the case of technology users, 90% use the Internet to find technical information, while only 17% use it to purchase supplies. This portends a conflict which may push the development of NGI (Next Generation Internet), a probability in concert with the National Library of Medicine's recent announcement of awards for NGI ranging from Web-based pathology databases to telemedicine. Many Internet service providers plan to offer "premium" services to subscribers in 1999 to help alleviate low bandwidth and slow transfer speeds experienced by most of us on any given day.

On the regulatory front, much has been made of Germany's new Article 29 and the EU's Directive on Privacy which are both aimed squarely against spammers and direct marketing types who harvest e-mail addresses from the Internet to hawk their wares. In the USA, 1998 saw the passage of laws on digital copyrights, child pornography, securities fraud, and sales tax exemptions (for three years). In 1999, expect to see legislation broadening the use of encryption, regulating Internet gambling, ISP regulation, additional privacy measures and spamming. Details of proposals in the works can be found at http://www.tech web.com/internet/news/features/1998/10/leg islation2.html. Standards work is also expected to move ahead at a faster rate in the hopes that the tower of babble seen among TV, digital phone, and VCR makers does not impede commercial progress on the Internet. A bevy of projects in this area are detailed at the World Wide Web Consortium at http://www.w3.org/ and The Web Standards Project at http://www.webstandards.org/ if you are a participatory type.

As always, our emphasis in these columns is to provide you, the design engineer, with tools and resources you find useful. If you have burning issues, resource voids, or just suggestions on how we may best accomplish this mission, you can always ­ the computer gods willing ­ e-mail me at steveo@micromo.com with your input. Best wishes for a successful and adventuresome 1999!

Steve O'Neil can be reached on the Internet at Steveo@micromo.com.