Trilogy Part 1 -
Future of Technology: A New Perspective

By the CRTs of Babble,There We Sat

-- Richard Mandel

In January 1980, eight months after the premiere issue of Designfax, Gernsback Publications' Radio-Electronics ran an article on breadboarding an interface for the TRS-80 that, combined with the appropriate instructions in BASIC, would apply the computer as a controller for various circuits, such as a simple light controller or working with A-to-D chips for measurements. Readers favoring Popular Electronics that month could build a real-time timer for the TRS-80, learn about power supply requirements for microcomputers, or order software for the Apple II. People's Computer Company in California was offering software on cassette which they hoped that, in combination with a phone modem, would eventually provide direct support for personal computer users. Meanwhile, Active Electronic Sales Corp. in Massachusetts was offering NEC's TK80A for $299, which included a board "based on the 8080A" with "both 1K RAM and 1K electrically erasable PROM," a "keypad with 25 real keys and 8 bright .500" digits for display."

In two years AutoCAD would be introduced and shipped, and in another year IBM would introduce the PC-XT, with a 10 meg internal hard drive.

While the history of Designfax isn't 1-to-1 concurrent with the evolution of microprocessor chipsets or engineering software, the products and ideas that fill our pages each month would be less sophisticated, less graceful and certainly less "smart," were it not for the explosion in electronic manufacturing and technology over the last two decades (though maybe mankind would be better served with a few less chatrooms on the 'Net). Here are perspectives of several guests discussing the "now and next" in electronics and computers.

M. Albert Capote, Aquila Technologies

Electronics packaging industries on all levels, from pc board down to the discreet devices, are undergoing convulsions, driven by the need to make things much smaller. The main problem is accomplishing reduction at the same relative cost. Two methods are being explored to achieve the desired end -- build an interface between the fine-pitch, nanometer-scale "stuff" on the chip and the coarse-pitch stuff on the pc board either directly on the printed circuit board, or by adding it onto the chip. The latter is known in the industry as chip-scale packaging, and its advantages include: removing the need for fine-scale interconnects to be laid out on the pc board; and the ease of implementation because fabrication can be done at the chip maker, where they are set to handle 10 micron manufacturing protocols. Plus, the interface can be done on polyamide film (as used in flex circuits), making the process inexpensive.

There is also work being carried out with "embedded passives technologies" -- fabricating capacitors and resistors as part of the circuit traces. It is still problematic with current manufacturing technology to achieve consistency and necessary high quality at that scale. Chip manufacturers are also improving techniques of "wafer scale processing," where all configuration and interconnect tasks are performed before the wafer is divided into chips.

An additional problem in size reduction is, as operating frequencies go higher in devices, they approach the realm of radio signals. To cut the RF, the interconnects need to become coaxial cables on a micron level. This is especially crucial in wireless and cellphone communications, where the components presently can't handle thermal and vibration shock very well because the solder is insufficient to hold parts to boards.

"Voice recognition software will be used more and more. Touch screens will be used for some applications, such as ticket dispensers or information desks, but because of our 'big and thick' fingers, keyboards will remain very important. I'm not sure about the potential of 'eye-driven' mouse-like solutions. This could be great if the technology is ready to use...We are developing easy-to-use and highly sophisticated products for the year 2000 and beyond. There will be a growing gap between 'very skilled and highly sophisticated' people and 'normal' people in terms of understanding what is going on, for example, the people who develop internet technology and the people surfing around in cyberspace." Dr. Ronald Rohner, Managing Director LinMot

I think, maybe in 20 years, the current technology that is driving the development of smaller devices will hit the wall. The biggest problem being heat -- every time you turn on one of these devices, you generate heat. Even if you make an interconnect that is one atomic width, you still are pushing electrons through it and generating heat. Centimeter amounts of space can generate hundreds of watts -- inevitably, the silicon will fail. From the stance of physics, there is an upper limit that will be reached. The next step may be biological systems, or biological models of systems, using DNA and DNA-type analogs to store data. Terabytes of data in the area of a human cell. The human brain doesn't need a heat sink. It will be time to can semiconductors and go to biological devices.

(One week after this interview, researchers at UCLA and Hewlett-Packard announced their creation of simple logic gates from organic compounds -- rsm)

Dr. Valery Tsourikov & Phil George, Invention Machine

Dr. T: The newest wave in software may be "semantic technology," semantic meaning "understanding of the text." Knowledge-based software is literally based on the knowledge, while semantic technology is creating the knowledge -- in this, they are complementary. To this end, IM has just created "Co-Brain." Co-Brain reads any document, understands the cause-effect relationships, extracts the most important pieces, and builds its knowledge base. Co-Brain structures information in data bases and creates an easy-to-use knowledge base, accessable through a simple GUI.

PG: The software creates a repository of structured, functional knowledge, to answer problems of "How do I do something to something?"

Dr. T: Co-Brain does not search past problems -- it reasons (an extension from IM Phenomenon) automatically. Logic and knowledge in one package, automatically. The software could eventually do automatic searches on the Internet to add to knowledge base, with automatic adjustment for users' needs. This is what the future holds: an artificial intellectual partner.

John R. Thompson, Director of
Communications, Personal Systems Group, Dell Computers

The current trend in computer packaging is to have their "netness" built-in -- an assumption that all users will be using their system for Internet work at some time. These systems will grow progressively more broadband, with high-speed connections ready out of the box. There will be new form factors affecting size and shape of the computer, as the box evolves into a more pleasing form. Flat panels will be more prevalent, as well. Research continues in practical, marketable versions of wireless keyboards and mice, as well as speech recognition software, since the computers will still need I/O devices of
some sort.

Chris Scheufele, Product Line
Manager for Sun Computers
Ultra Line Workstations

Sun's "Ultra" line of Sparc Stations were introduced in Fall 95. We see these types of workstation systems as still being strong players in design automation, such as electronic design, owing, in part, to the large memory capacity, scalability of the system, and large throughput -- the memory-to-processor transfer rate. They also serve in the financial and government markets -- in the latter they serve for system management and visualization (as in war games). While Sun hasn't marketed a laptop, third-party groups have produced laptops with Sun processor technology.

Advances will continue in performance. Original Ultra 1 had one gigabyte throughput rate -- today it's nearly 2 gigs per second on the bus. The trend will be towards the concurrent running of internal applications while running resources outside the desktop, which alludes to greater network-centricity.

Daniel Tynan,
Executive Editor for PC World magazine

Number one, the Internet will disappear. No, it's not really going away. The Net will simply become so ubiquitous, so integrated into our work and personal lives, that we will stop noticing it, stop talking about it, stop writing and reading articles about it. It will be like water to a fish--we'll be swimming in it, but we won't be aware it's there. And this will change everything we do.

I work in the information industry, sure, but I also work for a print magazine. That makes me a dinosaur, a fossil waiting to happen. Most of what I do will be supplanted by the Web. It's faster and cheaper. But I don't believe print will go away. I do believe it will become so expensive that it will be a luxury item -- a status symbol, kind of like the symphony or the opera, indulged in mainly by the very rich.

"The information revolution will continue to be the biggest challenge companies face. We move from a time when we needed to find information to live, to a time where we have to select information to base our thinking process on. This does affect people. It will affect the industry much more than it has already. We want to contribute to building a better world -- in the end, the cycle is from people's needs to people's needs -- from people's hopes to people's satisfaction." Eric Noyrez, Global Marketing Director Carilon Polymers, Shell Chemicals

(There will also be a cult of analog purists who refuse to touch anything with digits attached to it. They too will help keep people like me employed a little longer.)

The challenge here is simple: Get on the Net in a big way, or die. The problem is keeping the money flowing in the door while you wait for your Web site to start pulling in profits. (And if you have a good answer for that one, I'm sure thousands of Web startups would like to hear it.)

Number two, like the Net, computers will also disappear. But they, too, won't go away. In fact, there will be more of them than ever -- in your desk, in your car, in the walls of your home, and yes, in your clothes.

You may have a box on your desk that you call a PC, but more likely than not it's just a small terminal that communicates with a server somewhere in the basement. You might type on a keyboard, but odds are you'll be talking to it instead -- and cursing at it even more than usual. Voice recognition technology will get better, but it won't ever be like it is in Star Trek; we will simply develop a greater tolerance for errors and truncated spellings (like "nite" for night), adding to the general decline of literacy.

Of course, you may not have a desk, or even an office, if you can avoid it. If you're a "knowledge worker," you'll probably stay at home, tethered to your job by a wireless Internet connection. Instead of a corner office or a key to the executive washroom, your status at work will be indicated by how much precious corporate bandwidth you've been allotted.

All devices will be networked. And I do mean all -- your cell phone, your TV, your microwave oven, your water pic. But they won't all get along. Every so often, for no apparent reason, you'll pop a disc into the DVD player and all the ice cream in your freezer will melt. One thing that won't change: You'll still be able to blame Microsoft.

And three, the future will be like The Jetsons in one respect: Your best friend may be a cartoon. Expect computer-generated companions to play a big role in your life in the 21^st century. Digital valets will handle your calls and help you find your way around the Big Bad Net ("Here, let me find that phone number for you. Would you like me to answer that call, or take a message? Hmm, you look hungry. Let me order you a pizza.") Other characters will step in to offer advice or encouragement; think of them as friends who'll tell you exactly what you want to hear. ("Girlfriend, that haircut makes you look 10 years younger and 20 pounds lighter.") Improvements in sincerity algorithms will make it all seem more real.

As for entertainment, we'll have Webcams tuned in to our neighbors' homes, and they'll have theirs tuned to ours. We'll all watch each other watch each other. That and 2000 channels of infomercials, most of them starring Madonna.

Joseph A. DeFeo, Chief Operating Officer
Juran Institute, Inc.

"Design engineers should be well versed and practicing 'design of experiments.' There is no way they can design a robust product unless they visit the environment the product will be used in. They need to see it from the potential customer's eyes. They should not believe that they have a monopoly on the design of a product. Designers should think of themselves as organizers of many customer needs and optimizers of features that will meet those needs."

If you could ask 300,000 design engineers one question, what would it be?

"Do you know the intended and unintended use of the product you are providing?"

Kevin J. North,
Software Development Manager
SHAFI, Inc.

"I do not think technology is a bad thing. I think it has a great potential to enrich our lives. But I do worry about walking into one of these stereotypical homes of the future where lights and music come on automatically and there are convenience electronic devices everywhere. I like to have more control over my life. I want to live in a home comfortable to me, not what some programmer in California thinks would be most comfortable, environmentally-friendly, safe, etc. I should be able to control the technology I use, using it as a tool, not having it make all the decisions for me."

(continue)